Live record·Day 0 since launch (06 Nov 2026)·Read only
Every range we publish is scored. Misses included.
Each morning we publish centred ranges at 50, 80 and 95% for 1, 5 and 21 trading days on seven public markets. Each one is stored, then scored automatically once the real price is known. No direction forecast: only the size of the move.
Ranges published63
Scored so far0
1-day 80% coverage–
Backtest 80%, 1 day79%–81%
Cumulative live coverage
| Horizon | Range | Scored | Inside | Coverage | Target | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 trading day | 50% | 0 | 0 | – | 50% | 7 |
| 1 trading day | 80% | 0 | 0 | – | 80% | 7 |
| 1 trading day | 95% | 0 | 0 | – | 95% | 7 |
| 5 trading days | 50% | 0 | 0 | – | 50% | 7 |
| 5 trading days | 80% | 0 | 0 | – | 80% | 7 |
| 5 trading days | 95% | 0 | 0 | – | 95% | 7 |
| 21 trading days | 50% | 0 | 0 | – | 50% | 7 |
| 21 trading days | 80% | 0 | 0 | – | 80% | 7 |
| 21 trading days | 95% | 0 | 0 | – | 95% | 7 |
Latest misses (80% ranges)
No miss recorded yet (nothing scored yet: the first 1-day ranges are scored the next trading day).
Method and backtest
Ranges: last price ± k × z × σ × √h, σ from an EWMA of daily moves (λ = 0.94), k calibrated walk-forward. In the 2012–2026 backtest the 80% ranges held 77 to 81% of the time. See the backtest. Public data proxies (NYMEX), not Gulf physical prices. Not investment advice.